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I hope that fifth sense isn't smell because that would make that subject line a tough start to make my argument. But my point of this post is, am I the only one left who still wants Pedro Martinez back for another season with the Mets?
The Mets have added payroll to the bullpen, a much-needed improvement to try to avoid another collapse. And they are beginning the flirtation with Derek Lowe - which either will end with an expensive deal for a 36-year-old pitcher who the Mets passed on four years ago when he was young and viable or will send the Mets looking for the likes of inconsistent Oliver Perez or mediocre Randy Wolf to fill the fourth spot in the starting rotation behind Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey and John Maine.
That's all fine. But then there is the fifth spot.
The Mets have openly stated since the season ended that their plans call for inexpensive and young Jon Niese to get the spot as long as he doesn't choke it away. Ask a little deeper and they say Bobby Parnell, who was a starter all through his minor league career until late last season, will compete for it. And they confess they will likely bring in a couple of minor-league contract type veterans to come to camp and push Niese.
And they say quietly that Pedro Martinez won't be there.
And I think sometimes I'm the only one who thinks that is a mistake. I have spoken with Omar Minaya, Jerry Manuel and a number of team insiders and while they all say the polite thing on the record, when you speak to organization sources off the record, it sounds less and less likely that Martinez will return.
Understandable, given that Martinez has been a health hazard for the last two seasons - starting just five games in 2007 at the end of the season and then making 20 erratic starts last year. His agent, Fern Cuza, claims he is healthier than ever, strong again and ready to go at 37 years old, and that's the sort of thing an agent would say.
But I believe him, at least a little bit. While 2007 was lost to rehabilitating from surgery, 2008 never seemed right either. He was either still working his way back into form or losing time with his father's deteriorating health and eventual passing. Minor nagging injuries kept him from ever getting steady enough work to work his way into form, a necessity for a finesse pitcher, which Martinez has certainly become.
And maybe he's done, maybe he'll never be healthy again. And maybe those low 80's radar readings are all he's got left.
But here's the thing that I think. Bring him back. Give him the ball and find out what he's got left. If he takes 10 starts and he doesn't have it - consider that he's doing it in the fifth spot in the rotation now, not the first. And those 10 starts give Niese more time to learn, more time to grow, more time to overcome his own inconsistencies.
Or maybe Martinez does have enough left to be a very good No. 5 starter. The numbers may tell you one thing. His walks were up, an indication of how he was either losing command or trying desperately to pitch around the hitters he could not handle. But he did still strike out 87 in just 109 innings. But if you're around Martinez you know it's more than numbers. He is the smartest pitcher I've seen - in the same class or probably above what Tom Glavine could do. Okay, I'm sorry to bring up Glavine and the memories of how he aged.
But remember, the uses for Glavine and Martinez were never for the back of the rotation before. Now you're talking about the fifth spot and you're asking yourself, would you rather send out Martinez - the smartest pitcher you've ever seen, a craftsman who can work his way around hitters with almost nothing in his arsenal - or would you rather have an uncertain rookie? Or a journeyman like Nelson Figueroa? Or some other reclamation project?
If you're talking Randy Wolf for the fourth spot in the rotation, what exactly do you think you're going to get on a minor league contract for the fifth spot? I'll take the hall-of-famer, especially since the Mets now do have prospects waiting in the wings in Niese and Parnell.
And speaking of Niese and Parnell, it can't hurt to have Martinez around. He is a master of pitching, even if he can't do much of it anymore, and shares with his teammates. Some in the organization aren't thrilled with his solo rehab projects, but few say he didn't work. There is something he brings to the clubhouse though that seems to bring the differing groups together.
He wants to return, claiming to owe something to the Mets' organization that waited for him through his injuries and to the fans who have supported him. He was near tears talking about the way he had been treated during his four years in New York as he finished off the 2008 season.
Maybe he can make ammends and maybe he can't. All told, I'd take a chance. If he really wants to be a part of it, he can take an incentive-laden contract, maybe a $5 million base - or even the $6.5 the Mets wasted on Orlando Hernandez last season - with the possibility to bring it up to double that with the requisite starts, innings and wins.
All I know is I'd feel better with Pedro out there than the usual choice of No. 5 starters. And I feel like I'm alone there.
Francisco Rodriguez has never lacked for confidence and in a conference call he expressed his belief in himself, pointing out that his velocity will assuredly not be a problem. But what may warm the hearts of Mets fans even more on this cold December day is K-Rod's belief in the Mets.
After two months - maybe longer - of boasts and jibes by the Phillies, K-Rod picked a winner for the National League East and it isn't the defending World Series champs.
"Thatquestion is kind of difficult and easy," Rodriguez said. "It's difficult because the last two years I have not been there. But the easy part of course is we’re going to try to win the division, be a front runner. I don’t want to be a controversy – other ballclubs take it personally, in a bad way. I’m a competitive guy, I like to win. If they ask me what ballclub will win the N.L. East, it’s going to be the Mets. Easy question."
Omar Minaya is on his way home shortly, insisting that even he will rest a little bit. But before he does, he met with the media one more time sort out the week here at the Winter Meetings.
He is thrilled, as you would expect, to have solved his bullpen. But he remains set on obtaining a starting pitcher - either Oliver Perez or a replacement for Perez. Minaya said that he never actually had a sitdown with Scott Boras, the agent for Perez and Derek Lowe, Wednesday as the Mets got stuck in the negotiations for the J.J. Putz deal. Boras said he did speak earlier this week with the Mets.
The Mets are waiting for the feeding frenzy for starters to sort out, allowing them to step in and find a piece in their price range. If Lowe slips through the cracks, the Mets could be a part of that bidding, although Perez may be more likely.
"I
can be a player - but depending on where the dollars are going," Minaya said. "The (number). two and three, you see what the price is going for right now - the $15-plus (million) range. I don’t
know if that ballpark is an area we're going to be able to (be at), understanding not
only do I have a $27 million pitcher this year (Johan Santana), but I have to carry Billy (Wagner’s) money.
I’m carrying a lot of money back there. We'll free up something next year ,but I’m
carrying a lot of money."
Minaya may be bluffing a bit - and who can blame him with Boras across the table. The Mets have shaved off a considerable amount of payroll with last year's expiring contracts and are currently approximately $14 million under last year's payroll, even with Wagner's $10.5 million. So is it unreasonable to think that a team hoping for a World Series date would spend $17 million - just $3 million over last year's budget - to get a sure-thing No. 2 man for the starting rotation?
Minaya said he didn't anticipate spending on a bat, dedicating his dollars to finishing up the pitching staff. And we all know what that leads to - more Luis Castillo. The Winter Meetings created some interest you might not have anticipated - a hot market for Aaron Heilman (at least at reduced value). But there have been no takers for Castillo and the three years left on his contract.
"Right
now, Castillo's going to be our second baseman," MInaya said. "I know he didn't have a good
year, I know it's tough for him to come back. But this guy's been an All-Star,
and a two-time World Series winner, a .300 hitter for 10 years.
"When
you have the kind of year that he has and you've got three years left, there's
not many teams that are exactly going to be jumping and knocking down the door
for Luis Castillo, you know what I'm saying? The
cost issue will have to be kind of weighted, but the bottom line is he's our
second baseman. He's not a player that there's a great market for him based
upon the year he had last year."
So the Mets have the back end of the bullpen set now with Francisco Rodriguez and J.J. Putz (who more than one baseball official said this morning could be better than K-Rod if he's healthy again). They are counting on Duaner Sanchez to regain his form and are high on Sean Green. And don't forget, Billy Wagner might be back later this season.
Now there is just that little matter of who gets the ball to the bullpen. Johan Santana, Mike Pelfrey and John Maine are sure things and Jon Niese is a near certainty to grab the fifth spot (although team officials point out that they are projecting Bobby Parnell as a starter for now). Pedro Martinez seems a very long shot now to return.
It won't happen here, but the Mets are going to reach out for another starter and in the giddy moments after completing the Putz deal some team officials had high hopes that the Mets are going big again.
The most likely candidate might be Oliver Perez, who Omar MInaya labeled as a 50-50 shot to return. But one baseball official said don't rule the Mets out of the Derek Lowe chase. The team met with Scott Boras Wednesday, who represents both Perez and Lowe, and while the asking price is crazy now, the Mets believe that it might come into their range.
With the deals that they have made here and the payroll that was scraped off the roster this winter with the departures of Perez, Pedro Martinez, Orlando Hernandez and Moises Alou the Mets are actually still approximately $14 million under last year's payroll. So it's not a reach to think that the Mets can spend $14 to $17 million a year to get a quality starter.
The Rule V draft is starting up now - so I'll be back with more later today.
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