2010 World Cup Qualifying Draw: CONCACAF

The U.S. national team's path to the 2010 World Cup will begin with a match-up against the winner of the Dominica/Barbados play-in qualifier. As you may recall, the US team faced Barbados in the second round of the 2002 World Cup qualifying cycle (winning both matches by a combined score of 11-0).

If you are wondering about Mexico, 'El Tri' will face face the winner Belize/St. Kitts and Nevis. Easy as cake right? Well, things get a wee bit tougher for the Mexicans in the next round, where they just may be in the region's group of death.

Here is a closer look at the rest of the CONCACAF Draw:

Group 1

• Winner of Dominica/Barbados vs. UNITED STATES
• Winner of Turks and Caicos Islands/S. Lucia vs. Guatemala
• Winner of Aruba/Antigua and Barbuda vs. Cuba
• Winner of Bermuda/Cayman Islands vs. Trinidad and Tobago

This is pretty much as easy a group as the US team could have hoped for. A likely foursome of Guatemala, Cuba and T&T bodes well for a cruise to the Hexagonal round (though trips to Guatemala are never easy and a trip to play in Cuba would be VERY intriguing). Guatemala should be happy as well considering all the problems Trinidad & Tobago is having.

Group 2

• Belize/St. Kitts and Nevis vs. Mexico
• Dominican Republic/Puerto Rico vs. Honduras
• Canada vs. St Vincent and Grenadines
• Bahamas/British Virgin Islands vs. Jamaica

Talk about a tough draw for Mexico. 'El Tri' will likely face a group with Canada, Honduras and Jamaica in the next round of qualifying, with just two slots available. Canada and Honduras both looked impressive in the last Gold Cup.

Group 3

• US Virgin Islands/Grenada vs. Costa Rica
• El Salvador/Anguilla vs. Panama
• Suriname/Montserrat vs. Guyana
• Nicaragua/Netherlands Antilles vs. Haiti

Costa Rica and Panama are the class of this group, though Haiti did look pretty good in the months prior to last summer's Gold Cup.

What are your thoughts on these groups and match-ups? Share your thoughts below.

Comments

[Dave Lifton]

Mexico finally get a tough group.

[Patrick]

Wow, that is a good draw for the United States. Is it finally to the point where we dont have to significantly worry about qualifying? Sad to say but I am not sure yet.

[Tom]

Christ. Why do we always have to get drawn with the butchers form Guatamala?

I really despise that team and it's tactics.

They used to just be butchers but their new coach has stepped it up.

They are now cheap shoting after the play, play acting butchers.

[Bill]

Here's my early days prediction:

The Hex will be

USA, Guatemala, Mexico, Canada, Costa Rica, and Panama.

The WC 2010 participants will be USA, Mexico and Costa Rica. Now, the 4th place team in the hex--do they have a playoff against an Asian team, like last time? Or did they change it to a CONMEBOL team? If it's the Asian team again, I say Canada slips in there. If it's a South American team, sorry Canada, Uruguay or someone will steal your thunder.

[MK]

I don't want to get to the point where the US is a sure thing to qualify. Comfortable games against St. Kitts & Nevis or Suriname in qualifying are nice and all, but the US needs to see stiff competition and gamesmanship (read butchering and diving) to stay sharp. They can't expect a cake group or a supportive atmosphere in the World Cup.

[Fidel]

The US team won't face resistance from the US government for travelling to Cuba will they?

[Jonathan Fields]

I like the U.S. chances of getting to the hexagonal group. Guatemala is their toughest opponent. Does anyone have the dates for the games in the 2nd round and also the group phase of the 3rd round?

[Tom]

It's SA now Bill.

No gimmie for number 4 in CONCACAF this time.

[Dave]

What kind of team should we expect from Trinidad and Tobago? Will it be their A team or their B/C team from the Gold Cup? I know their WC06 team had a dispute with the soccer federation over some money but I can't remember if it had been resolved yet.

[Jon]

To be fair, it should be noted that of teams from the 2005 Hex, THREE are in the United States group and two are with Costa Rica, leaving Mexico as the only seeded team in its group.

Plus, the U.S. got the most difficult non-Hex qualifier, Cuba, which only lost to Costa Rica on away goals four years ago.

I think it's a very tough draw for the U.S., T&T's troubles notwithstanding.

[Lawrence]

I think Canada is another sleeping giant, like the US was in 90.

Anyone know if de Guzman's little bro is going to play for Canada?

Regardless, go USA. Can't wait for US v Mexico in Columbus!

[Ives]

Jon, what happened in the last Hex is irrelevent. Canada is the most improved team in CONCACAF, with Honduras right there. Mexico's group is as brutal a second-round group as you can put together in CONCACAF.

The US group is easy. Sure, it doesn't have a total pushover like the winner of Suriname-Montserrat/Guyana in Panama's group, but none of the teams are really dangerous.

As for what Cuba did four years ago, its leading scorer and best player back then is in the US now trying to find a contract so he won't be playing. The team also won't have Maykel Galindo. Cuba will offer tough games but isn't beating the United States.

Trinidad & Tobago will be tough if it ever gets its players/federation World Cup bonus conflict straightened out, but does anyone really think the U.S. team isn't getting out of that group?

At the end of the day you'll see the usual suspects in the Hex: USA, T&T (if the starters come back, if not Guatemala), Mexico, Canada (Honduras is right there), Panama and Costa Rica. The sad part is that one of these three (Mexico, Canada and Honduras) isn't going to make it to the Hex while Costa Rica, which is a shell of its former self, will most likely make it.

[nico]

Group 3 is a joke. Group 2 is tough. Honduras is the 2nd best team, if they can manage to get their players to come back for the games (which they always find difficult). People have been calling Canada a 'sleeping giant' (or similar) for a long time, everyone's easy pick for a suprise. Lets see what they can do.

[Aljarov]

Tough group for Canada...as bad as it could have been in fact.

[Jon]

I wouldn't say it's irrelevant, but you make legit points.

Jamaica has underachieved so many times recently that I'm not giving them as much respect as you are.

And in the U.S. group, Guatemala always plays better in WCQ than in friendlies.

But I'll agree that Group 2 is the toughest - I just don't think the U.S. has an absolute walk.

thanks for the analysis.

[Nick]

USA at Cuba would be amazing. There will actually be something compelling to look forward to in these early rounds if that matriculates...

[scott]

I don't see a way the Treasury Department lets the USMNT go play a game in Cuba. Didnt the Treasury Department reject Cuba's first request to play in the World Baseball Classic, and only allow them in when they agreed that all their profits would go towards Hurricane Katrian releif. The Treasury Department has a strict economic embargo on Cuba and this game would defiantely make a profit for Cuba, so i dont see the game being played.

[Tom]

How has Jamaica underachieved for so long?

They had one run in their history. That's it.

It's not underachieving. They aren't that good. I guess because they have several players in the lower leagues of England and a couple of avergae squad players in the P'ship they must be good. We don't way over rate anything to so with England here in the US. Do we? (hehe)

Canada was a surprise at the GC. Yes. Problem? People will take them more seriously this time and not give them as little respect, and as much free room in the middle on the ball, as they might have before. Still see them on the outside looking in.

I watched the US-Can GC match the other day. Except for the last 20 minutes, where Canada played old style hockey, not smooth passing, did they get back in it.

Sure, they had a lot of the ball in half one but NO threatening chances. Not a one folks. We had 5 good ones. We played them off the field for the first 20-25 minutes of half two.

Me thinks people are way over rating their performance against us, and undervaluing ours because of that 20 minutes of hockey they played and that bad call.

No surprise. Emotion over rides reality in sport very often.

[Dave]

USA Cuba in the same group, The Borat Derby in Europe and North and South Korea in Asia. There are some intersting Political overtones to this years qualifying.

[Tim]

My picks for the hex are as follows:

(1) US/Trinidad & Tobago; I hate that we have to play Guatemala on the road. Historically we are very mediocre there. Cuba is interesting politically, nothing more.

(2) Mexico/Jamaica; This is a tough draw for Mexico, but I think they will get it done. However, it wouldn't be a stunner for me to see Jamaica and Canada come out of this group.

(3) Costa Rica/Panama; These are the clear favorites out of this group, unless Haiti were to pull an upset.

Out of this:

US, Mexico, Costa Rica

The playoff for the 4th spot is against the 5th place CONMEBOL team, probably somebody like Uruguay, Colombia, or Peru. I see T&T finishing 4th, with a tough play-in game against one of those CONMEBOL teams just mentioned.

[YankatOxford]

Ives, a comment from the U.S. soccer officials on the matter of WCQ match in Havana would be greatly appreciated.

As an international relations scholar I posed this question to a few colleagues this weekend. Will the U.S. play in Havana, Cuba should circumstances arise?

Quite frankly, if the United States wish to attend the World Cup in 2010, and Cuba qualify for the first group stage, we have little choice but to do so. Precedent for forfeiting such a match has shown it to be extremely damaging.

The Cuban Embargo and the later Helms-Burton Act represents the policy implement of a begone era in international affairs. Trade sanctions have proven notoriously ineffective around the world for altering the domestic policy of a nation-state, particularly those of the general type.

Regardless, of how one may feel about Castro personally, the rest of the world consistently condemns the Embargo on an annual basis. In the United Nations General Assembly, the vote was once again overwhelming. 183-4 in condemnation of the U.S. was the vote this year.

The Cuban-American relationship has been consistently tepid for the past five years, the duration of time since the last significant attempt to end the embargo in the U.S. Senate in 2002.

Previously, in a club precedent the Baltimore Orioles played the Cuban National Baseball team in 1999 in Havana, despite the the protests of Cuban exiles in Florida.

The game would mean a significant breakthrough in the relationship between the two nation-states, and it doubtlessly would be welcomed by the international community.

[Darryl]

Wow what a draw. I must say as a Jamaican football fan that i am disappointed as we all know Mexico is going to qualify and that the real fight begins at who will come second in the group with Honduras,
Canada, and Jamaica. Hopefully Jamaica will get a good coach on board and the players to match. I think Canada at this point is the best of the three(3). Good to see this level of competition posed to Jamaica If they make it through it will be well deserved.

[Justin]

YankatOxford - You may already know this, but here's the relevant article from the Treasury Department's "COMPREHENSIVE GUIDELINES FOR LICENSE APPLICATIONS
TO ENGAGE IN TRAVEL-RELATED TRANSACTIONS INVOLVING CUBA"

VII. Public performances, athletic and other competitions, and
exhibitions (§§ 515.560(a)

(7) & 515.567)
Specific license consideration for athletic competition by
amateur or semi-professional athletes or teams selected by the
relevant U.S. federation and traveling to participate in
athletic competition held in Cuba under the auspices of the relevant international sports federation when the competition
is open for attendance, and in relevant situations
participation, by the Cuban public.
Specific license consideration of participation in a public
performance, other athletic competition, non-athletic
competition, or exhibition in Cuba by participants in such
activities, provided that the event is open for attendance, and
in relevant situations participation, by the Cuban public and
all U.S. profits from the event after costs are donated to an
independent nongovernmental organization in Cuba or a US-based charity that benefits the Cuban people.

http://www.treas.gov/offices/enforcement/ofac/programs/cuba/cuba_tr_app.pdf

[AT]

Good find on those Treasury Regs, Justin. The plain language seems to point toward a trip to Havana for Bradley and the boys.

Does USSF profit from away fixtures? If they do, then they'll have to donate the profits from the @Cuba game to some charity, but that looks to be the only real hurdle (I'm assuming the Cuban futbol fed is going to have the match open to the public, unless they want to get *really* gamey and close the match to keep the US players out of the country and force a forfeit...hopefully unlikely)

[Tim]

AT,

I think any move like that by Cuba would more likely work against them. They cannot create an impossible situation for the U.S., then expect us to forfeit. I think FIFA would have to step in and say that a move like that by Cuba is essentially a forfeit ON THEIR PART.

However, I don't think it will come to that.